November 9th, 2023
Rep. Joey Sarte Salceda
With inflation back under control and growth back on track, President Marcos has the space and the opportunity to work on policies and priorities that are forward-looking. PBBM is back in a position of strength — and that is leverage for more long-term reforms.
The key driver of growth recovery in the 3rd Quarter is government spending, which lodged a positive 6.7 percent growth year-on-year, versus negative 7.1 percent last quarter.
That resulted in high construction sector growth, at 12.4 percent on the expenditure side, and 14.0 percent on the industry side.
We have to sustain the government’s spending catchup plan, especially at the local government unit level. Budgeted programs and plans there were put on hold because of the Barangay and SK Election spending ban should be pursued vigorously to completion this year.
Mining is also back in the green at 4.5 percent growth, its best performance since Q3 of 2022, PBBM’s first quarter in office.
We need to keep working on agricultural growth, however. For the sector to maintain its peso-level contribution to GDP per capita, it should grow by at least 2 percent every year. Average growth so far this year has been 1.1 percent. The appointment of a DA Secretary who comes from the leading investment drivers of the agriculture sector should bolster the effort to meet this target.
There are signs of weak global trade, as shown in a much larger negative growth for imports of goods, from -5.0 percent during the previous quarter to -8.1 percent. Exports of goods have also decelerated in growth from -0.9 percent to -2.6 percent, signs of continued lackluster global demand due to high Fed rates.
In the absence of a strong global trade environment, we must strengthen our fundamental domestic industries, especially agriculture and domestic manufacturing.
Moving forward, Filipinos can expect that while global conditions will remain volatile and uncertain, the President has more tools to work with, thanks to good growth numbers for the past quarter.