June 22nd, 2025
Rep. Joey Sarte Salceda
Co-Chair, House Murang Pagkain Supercommittee
A full-scale, boots-on-the-ground war between Israel and Iran is still unlikely, even with the involvement of the United States. Iran has said that recent attacks did not do much damage. Whether true or not, this shows they may be trying to keep the situation from getting worse. Still, Filipinos in Israel are in danger, especially in areas that could be hit by rockets or caught in the fighting. There are around 30,000 Filipinos in Israel, most of them working in cities.
Iran’s allies in the Red Sea area might try to get involved. This could mean small attacks on shipping routes or actions meant to send a message. Even without major attacks, the threat alone could raise shipping costs and cause delays. That would affect the price of oil and food coming into the Philippines. That’s what we get for being dependent on imports of food and fuel.
Right now, world oil prices are in the high 70s in US dollars per barrel. If things get worse in the region, prices could go above 80. When oil gets more expensive and the peso is weak, it costs more to import fuel. Every ten dollar increase in oil prices could raise inflation in the Philippines by as much as 0.5 percentage points for poor households, depending on how the government handles subsidies. The excise tax suspension trigger doesn’t activate until an average of three months can be obtained, so that’s not yet in the horizon.
We should be ready for mass repatriation, even if full scale conflict is still not very likely. The Department of Labor and Employment and the Department of Migrant Workers should be ready to bring Filipinos home and assist them. The Department of Transportation should be ready to release fuel subsidies if prices stay high. Other agencies should keep a close watch on import flows and logistics. The 2026 budget should have all of this in mind.