January 28th, 2023
House Ways and Means Chair Joey Sarte Salceda (Albay, 2nd district) said he is “bullish” about 2023 prospects for the Philippines, despite fears of a global economic slowdown, saying of the 2022 fully-year growth numbers that “we have not seen the last of this. The best is yet to come.”
“The 2022 full year GDP growth rate of 7.6%, which exceeds the DBCC targets, is a triumph for the administration’s policy of allowing the recovery momentum to proceed in full swing. For this achievement, I credit affirmative policies to scale back COVID-19 restrictions following a reduction in risk, a recovering tourism sector and major leaders such as the BPO, electronics, and mining sectors, the continuation of a policy of opening up the country to investments, and reaffirming our traditional economic partnerships with the world,” Salceda said.
“But what catches my attention in the GDP figures is not the usual growth and recovery in consumption. That is to be expected.”
“What excites me for 2023 and for the medium-term is the growth in gross capital formation. Businesses, in other words, are investing – and their expenditures for those investments reflected well on the figures.”
Gross capital formation grew by 16.8% year-on-year, according to the PSA’s estimates.
“That bodes very well for 2023 and beyond. That means the business sector is optimistic about the need for more production in the coming years. Don’t bet against the Philippines in 2023.”
Salceda is also seeing “a sliver of hope in the agriculture sector.”
“Last year saw negative growth in breeding stocks and orchard development. That figure is now a very slight positive, at 0.3%”
Salceda as pointed out that the energy sector appears to have some momentum based on the figures.
“The liberalization of the energy generation sector has yielded some benefits already, and I expect those benefits to grow in the medium-term. The growth in acquisition of power-generating equipment at 36.9% is staggering. This is the largest growth in expenditures on durable equipment except for water-transport, which grew by an eye-popping 190.2%.”
Construction sector growth by 12.7% is also a sign, according to Salceda, “that PBBM’s policy of Build Better More, or an enhanced continuation of the Build, Build, Build, is sound economic policy.”
Inflation “still Public Enemy Number One”
Salceda also said that he expects inflation “to taper off in 2023 to more ‘normal’ levels. On the elevated side of normal, at around 4-4.3%. We can do better with policies that undercut the cartels in the sugar, onion, frozen meats, and other key food sectors.”
“That’s why we are doing work in the House Committee on Ways and Means to make policy and procedural reforms at the enforcement side so we can pop the price bubbles in the agri import sector.”
“I have no doubt we will grow in 2023. Probably in numbers that once again surprise. But the best way to make that growth felt in the most basic sectors is to lower food prices.”
“The output of the BPO and electronics sectors is not too dependent on domestic conditions. But how that output translates to household welfare is dependent on food prices here.”
“We are now a service-driven economy. That means our people are our single most important economic asset. In such an economy cheap food, housing, reliable internet and public transportation are the fuel of sustained economic growth. That’s what our people need to keep going at it.”