Press Releases

Re JOBS REPORT

August 8th, 2022

The most notable figure from the jobs report is the one on the wholesale and retail trade, which lost 1.2 million jobs. That is almost as much as the jobs gain in agriculture, at 1.26 million.

What this could indicate is that inflation is constraining people from spending on more discretionary items. Disposable income remains subdued, as I also stated regarding the July 2022 inflation report.

The major job losers in that sector are supermarkets and department stores (192,000), hardware stores (189,000), and online or direct sales (144,000).

I expect things to continue getting harder for brick and mortar stores as malls have begun to charge previously deferred or reduced rental payments. This is on top of the tighter competition due to online shopping networks- which also tend to be tax advantaged as we find it harder to enforce VAT on online sales.

Overall, I see continuing job weakness until inflation pressures abate.

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